Wednesday, August 22, 2007

心繫家國

早幾日,孫柏文覺得,平時作為一個散戶,已經好似俾啲大鱷拋嚟拋去咁,非常被動。 不過今時今日,就連啲大鱷都被時世掟嚟掟去時,作為散戶,更加完全無助。

不過,如果大家冇跟噚日個市,淨係睇吓啲收市價同點數,突然間郁都唔郁,更加得人 驚,亦都可能有好多疑團。

大陸股唔講,淨係見恒指升133點,得嗰0.6%,以呢排嘅波幅嚟計,真係好似冇郁一樣。不過,同時又見到金融類嘅港交所 (388)升6.2%,但係滙豐(005)又跌1.3%,真係搞到人scratch晒頭。

強國對壘結果難料

如果要孫柏文好 簡單咁解釋今日嘅情況,我就會用我姪仔本《小學生圖解成語詞典》裏面嘅「自相矛盾」嚟做比喻。話說,家陣特區股市,有兩個敵對,但又強大嘅力量對壘︰一 邊,係一支無堅不摧嘅矛(花旗國信貸危機),加一塊水火不侵嘅盾(祖國澎湃嘅資本)。答案係乜,讀過小學都明白,呢啲哲學嘢無謂多講。

花旗國,大家都知會 死得好肉酸。次按風暴已經蔓延到其他國家同信貸工具,全世界央行都開大水喉救火。撇開伯南克呢個學院派擺明要爆佢一大鑊,就算真係要救,各國政府都未必有 能力搞得掂。政府做啲嘢,當係表吓態囉,大家都係無謂放上心。滙豐,又點會有得升?

另一邊,係大家都知祖國鈔票氾濫到連豬肉都炒到飛天,炒股嘅就話唔怕買 貴啫,其他嘢真係貴啲都暴動。撞啱今年又真係周圍都落大雨,到處都水浸,食物真係唔可以貴,無可奈何之下,點都要排洪。幾十萬億嘅人仔存款,真係隊落香 港,炒乜都好啦,一定要響特區唯一嘅港交所買嘢。

港交所實發過豬頭

港交所不但喺香港壟斷,更加可以話係全世界唯一合法吸納中華人民共和國資金嘅壟斷,仲唔發過豬頭?升6.2%,升少咗啦!再重複一次,係幾十萬億存款嘅集散地!升6.2%,升少咗啦!大家,跟住我唱︰「起來……」

18 comments:

  1. Dear 孫兄,

    Silver 戰隊要出擊
    http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/richricher/42433

    I strongly recommed HKEX allow silver ETF to trade in HK as well.But how can we voice out?Can we do something to push HKEX to take this consideration?Or seek for help from David Webb?

    Albert

    ReplyDelete
  2. Sorry,the link is incorrect

    here is the right one

    http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/richricher/42433

    ReplyDelete
  3. Sorry again,it is weired,can't post properly,the end is not 424,is 42433

    finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/richricher/42433

    ReplyDelete
  4. It is a really depressing that silver is still a speculative asset.

    We have to wait for some banks to blow up before we can get this baby on the road to $120 per Oz.


    Shuen

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi Pakman and Pulp,

    Could you please kindly help to know where and how I could join the 白銀戰隊 in Hong Kong, thanks

    ReplyDelete
  6. to: Danny,

    肥仔個blog首頁右手邊已經有教如何買白銀嘅hyberlink,方法1. ETF-信建制中仲有誠實嘅銀行 & 方法2. 實貨-買 @ Kitco
    不贅了.

    不過,仲有第三條路,就係去中銀開個貴金屬存摺,用港幣買紙上倫敦銀,不過差價就大少少.

    ReplyDelete
  7. hello 孫兄

    我先表明我是一個大淡友
    由六月開始被國家送了第一個大禮後
    我就被夾到體無原灰了...
    真的很感謝祖國的照顧...

    上星期由於次按的問題
    令股市從高位回落...
    我想.股市終於都可以正常地上升了
    可是.由於國家的任何進程都要比歷史的行得快.所以她再送我們一個大禮.自由銀(紙)
    令它可以用差不多一星期就完成他國幾個月至幾年的調整
    再一次令我感到我國的強大.感謝...

    次按和國家的角力.令本地的投資/投機者不斷從快樂線中間上上落落...

    難道各國注資去改善次按問題, 中國真的可以獨善其身嗎?

    太多感受.太少時間...
    下次再談

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hi everyone,

    Newly joined and just want to share what my wife told me.

    Need to watch out this Friday and next Monday... especially next Monday.

    ReplyDelete
  9. 我都係大淡友, 因為我認為伯南克只會令美國鑊粥更大鑊.

    今日終於見到有人在22,800 至 23,000 努力派貨. 今日派完, 聽日再派, 派到人人以為個市一如伯老所說的 "穩定" 後, 再來個A型急瀉. 爽!

    ReplyDelete
  10. 肥仔, 你又有野寫喇. 螃蟹單野呀. 唔知你觀點係咪同我一樣. 望你寫o下教育大眾...
    billy

    ReplyDelete
  11. Dear Billy,

    螃蟹單野? I dun get...

    Can you further explain. I want to know what you are referring to...

    Dear Niche, littleone and wongchoi

    it sucks to be a short right now.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Hi Pakman,

    It purely a forecast or you can even say it's a prediction.

    I know that no one should argue with the market trend, so I am not on Bull side or Bear side. So let's re-check the current situation -

    - all so-called "good news" from US are all based on speculation, e.g. interest rate cut, subprime problem is getting stabilized.. etc etc.

    - all "bad news" from US and other countries are REAL facts, e.g. companies shutdown, layoff.. etc etc.

    There is one country (market) keeping me wonder - England.. Why? Does anyone feel surprise that not much subprime bad news from England so far? Is it really the real case or something really bad are being hidden so far. I DO NOT believe England can avoid impact from subprime problem, honestly speaking.

    Good news from grandpa (China) -

    Official money - no one can tell how much money will REALLY come and invest into Hong Kong market at this moment, other than the amount of QDII. So assumption and speculation again?

    Non-official money - they have invested ALREADY, don't you think?

    Just my 2c..

    ReplyDelete
  13. 和大家分享小弟的奇想。 小弟作為大淡友,輸錢事小,條氣唔順事大。 就這星期觀察所得,心中有幾個「謎」:
    1. 為何出現「大奇蹟日」後,股市再狂升三千點?
    2. 為何「大奇蹟日」後,任總個樣咁愁?
    3. 為何上星期四港元會離奇上升至破 7.8?

    假設有大鱷一早知道伯南克減貼現窗利率,又知道次按單野死實,佢會點做?

    1. 在伯南克宣佈減貼現窗利率前一刻瘋狂入貨,因為個市會有短暫支持。
    2. 各大行冇水,要大平賣套現,個市任人魚肉,大鱷出擊良機。
    3. 因為次按第二波必爆,必盡快托市,托到所有散戶或圖表派唔入市唔安樂,跟住就大派特派。
    4. 香港是世界上資金流動最自由的地方,消息流通速度及散戶投入程度俱屬世界之冠,加上聯繫匯率基制,國際炒家之外匯風險近乎零,故是國際大鱷最佳獵食地點。
    5. 順手上演一幕量子基金翻版,沖擊聯匯。 依現時基制,只要夠多錢,聯匯是可以沖擊的。

    如是者,先上演一幕「大奇蹟日」(當晚伯南克減貼現窗利率),再藉外圍消息狂炒,加上中央那個資金自由行計劃咁o岩同時出籠,狗屎撞馬棍好彩到唔恨,散戶星期一唔中,星期二三都中硬招。 星期三見成交轉弱,今日即時再藉好消息隊高七百點出貨。 圖表派見大升市加上大成交配合聽日又再入貨,結果人家賺盡離場,再狂空期指。

    醜婦終須見家翁,法巴解凍基金必定大貶值,成交價一出個市即時仆直,到時大鱷的期指平倉賺第二浸,應該夠本錢同任總鍊過。

    如果你係任總,就算明知人家出招,亦只能啞子吃黃蓮,難怪失魂落魄,苦無對策。

    只是,誰是這大鱷丁蟹?

    ReplyDelete
  14. Dear Pakman,

    螃蟹單野
    http://hk.news.yahoo.com/070822/12/2e6fe.html

    billy

    ReplyDelete
  15. To All 同路人

    Although people will think we are all crazy people that doing short in this stock market right now, we believe where the hsi index should suppose to fall that make the index more healthy.

    Anyway, it is a right place, right person, but wrong timing.

    大部分的人認為順勢而行是安全的, 我絕對認同, 但你不知道大鱷何時將你一口吞噬. 只可惜他們要我們更瘋癲地參與.

    當指數到22500時, 我感覺到他們又再夾上了...

    次按問題, 同香港部份公司相同, 輸打贏要, 真是天下烏鴉一樣黑. 注資和減息, 我暫時都是覺得對中線發展有不良影響.

    下次再談...

    ReplyDelete
  16. 點解大家都應為祖國富豪仲未投入國際級投資市場呢,而要為了投資老遠走到天津去呢?你地看看街上的自由行,他們係咪如你所想可以進貢香港千憶成交的一班人!?

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete
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