Thursday, August 30, 2007

未來的開始


今日,我30歲。

根據官方資料,今時今日特區男性人民嘅平均壽命係79歲。即係話,孫柏文壽 命只要有平均咁好,就會睇到鄧小平同志為特區定下「五十年不變」嘅終結,2047年。噚日就幫自己做回顧,今日就同大家諗吓我哋嘅未來。


大家每日參與嘅金 融市場,特別係股票買賣,無時無刻跳動嘅價格,反映緊市場對未來嘅預測。所以,作為一個財經口水佬,預測未來係工作嘅根本。

繼續投資買白銀

然, 大家可能會話:「唔好話2047年會點,講中聽日會點都已經好勁。」同意,不過有啲嘢都係值得做吓預測。理由係,有啲嘢聽日會點,大家心目中會好肯定,不 過問大家2047會點,就真係完全唔知。例如,我問你:「聽日起身邊個係特首?」相信大家都識答。不過問你:「2047年特首會係邊個?」你分分鐘反問 我:「仲有冇特區都未知啦!」所以諗吓未來會點,可以爆發好多新思維。

首先,大家可能想知,由今日到2047年,有啲乜好投資。大家肯定以為,孫柏文作為「白銀戰隊隊長」,一定又話「一注獨贏買白銀」。冇錯,我相信到2047年時,世界各國都仲係會用單憑信心做保證嘅紙幣fiat currency做法定貨幣。即係各國人民繼續被「紙幣狂魔」蹂躪,紙幣嘅購買力將會不斷削弱,買白銀絕對錯。

長線投資生仔女

不 過,如果大家今日問我,由今日到2047年最好嘅投資係乜,我覺得一定係生番幾個仔女。跟住投入好多心機、時間,做大量嘅人力資源投資。

黃金、白銀係啲非 常消極、防禦性高嘅投資。40、50年長嘅時間,大家可以做啲風險較高嘅投資,而冇乜投資嘅風險高得過生仔女,所以回報亦一樣高。我,係樂觀嘅。

再講,呢個世 上冇任何人造力量,強大得過人口變化。所以長遠來說,孫柏文最擔心就係我國嘅「一孩政策」。就有如97年,特區政府將百分百香港人兒童拒於境外,種下今日唔夠後生仔嘅世界。未來可能係我國嘅,不過可以係幾耐?

4 comments:

  1. You had a very good analyze of the financial market. Are you both an
    > > analysts and a technical trader?
    > >
    > > I had some experience in trading equity options in Australia long ago and
    > > made my first buck as a youngsters in 2000.
    > >
    > > I now focused on both long term and short term trading on good value stocks
    > > in HK.
    > >
    > > The warrant market in HK are unreasonably price and the the risk and
    > > benefits from these warrants are robing investors so I don't trade in it.
    > >
    > > I sold 50% of my stock portfolio last Monday, seeing the Credit crunch
    > > wasn't heard by the market than bought 20% on Wednesday fall and bought
    > > another 30% on the day when the market falls close to 19000.
    > >
    > > Even though I had a similar view with you on the HK and overseas market. But
    > > I did see that institutions are pushing the limit as to scare most retail
    > > investors away by pushing the market well below the 250 Day Moving average
    > > for HS Index.
    > >
    > > The HK market are oversold and I bought some bargains that hedge to my
    > > portfolio to not losing money at all in the last few weeks.
    > >
    > > I sold 50% of my portfolio yesterday and took in some good profit. (well I
    > > should say a hedge of my overall investment)
    > >
    > > I'm waiting for another wave of selling in the days to come. Why I still
    > > hold 50% because my experience told me on one is expert in the market, no
    > > one could tell when the market truly bottoms or prepare for another rise. My
    > > present situation enable me to prepare both for the upside and downside
    > > risks.
    > >
    > > I read some books on trading which are really good and I'm a part trader and
    > > investors.
    > >
    > > I had a passion on trading and investment.
    > >
    > > Lets share more in regular basis.
    > >
    > > Regards,
    > > William NG

    ReplyDelete
  2. my email is tennis.ng@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  3. I am 29 years old, unfortunately, I am still job seeking in construction field ........
    I had done a fail investment in the past, which is studied in academic of construction and got some years experience in this field.... and now......., POOR

    市民食唔飽,着唔暖,社會何來和詣??!!
    制定/檢討長遠建造業發展政策及方向!

    要求保障建造業工人生命及生活!!
    唔係日日响電視賣廣告叫入讀建造業,繼續誤人子弟!!


    係咪要深入考慮即時加薪加福利減工時,立即檢討政策,加快推出大型基建,檢討賣地房屋政策,防止奸商壓榨工人,
    任憑工人註冊晒d平安咭、乜咭勿咭,中低層工程管理人員、讀晒cert, dip.,degree holder,增加晒知識、技術
    唔檢討價底者得制度,判上判判判再判制度,都未能防止奸商草菅人命!

    當年政府又帶頭減合約制人工福利,建造業從業員都被剝削,壓榨太久..........................勞工署這麼多年來都不檢視及探討,因為她們主責安全、有無遺返勞工法例!!(比喻之前消防在密閉空間工作出意外,就無咩問題,而地盤發生就會比勞工署告..)

    政府好多工程,尤其大型基建,外判比外資顧問公司負責設計、監工,减少好多福利、管理上支出!大判唔直接請工人亦是相同情况!!
    二判、三判、其他分判商基本上無做咩嘢,只係中介人角色(有点似批發商),工錢真正落到施工既判頭不多,但要真係施工

    亦可從以下了解建造業多d
    九七年平均$1200,日日有工開,有OT錢!想休息都唔得!
    一個月是$1200X31=$37200(最少果個)
    現在,$800日(好多只係得$600~700添),
    一個月是$800X15=$12000,仲要减MPF,有d被迫做自僱人仕,所以只得$10800(只計比較好既有15日開工,好多只係得10日到!随時得$7200!!(只及以前既尾數)

    建築工程大幅少咗,建造技術(從国內來既預製件,即係成幅牆、橋身segment)改變,需要扎鉄エ人大幅减少!!
    濺中資承建商壓價搶工程(Causeway Bay 天秤倒塌,国內鳳凰古城,新造橋塌etc)(因香港中標奉行價低者得),再判上判判判,中間又比中介人(判頭)扣錢,俗稱人頭稅,約$400一日(佔日薪超過30%),食水深既奸商只懂向弱勢工人剝削,壓榨;

    樓價創新高大旺,豬牛羊、罐頭樣樣加,一家幾口點生活???人工一路減!點生活??點生活??

    日曬雨淋,條底褲由朝濕到收工 (因出汗),皮膚又曬到黑,勞動工時長,做到無停手休息!!等如攞住個雪櫃既重量响地盤走,非一般人做得來!!剩係得雞碎錢,都未夠考政府要求既專業技能既牌照費用!!
    唔知係咪官商迫民反呢!!

    相信有一點好值得注意,就係從前市况好既時侯,培育訓練咗一大班有關人員,不止扎鉄,還有工程師、專业人仕.............................................,近幾年オ把有關建造業培育訓練專上機構可供就讀既學位減少,控制每年畢業生人數。這反應咗從前製定教育政策與社會發展、建造業接軌有不足之處,易造成資原錯配現象!!政府在每位建造業大学畢业生都有投放資原!

    還有一點是值得注意,建造業(尤其政府工程)如完全以判上判判判方法,不作有效良好監管,好易產生天水圍公營房屋短樁事件,名歌星父親以權謀私事件),好易產生更多複雜社会問題!亦即係話如紀律部隊全換上外判形式,確實可减低開支,維持社会人員質素有可能堤升添(退伍軍人....),但社会好易變成咩樣子?!承標公司壓價搶標,以低薪僱用返因外判既現役人員,那班人因「自由市場」原則,会唔會產生更多複雜社会問題!?

    還有從事政府工作既人員仍遇到同工不同薪既情况!!仲慘被因合約制掙扎中!(安逸的工作中,開始轉向勤奮地探討一下香港現今的就業市場內的公平性了。 )不易實現,許多部門都存在長工和合約制員工,真係做嘢果班淨係只得合..................,原因非常簡單吧!!

    (從事建築界各打工仔,包括受到發展局工X科屬下土木工程XX署、渠X署、路X署、水X署等員工/合約員工,
    房X署員工/合約員工,受不平等待遇既ABC餐壓榨既合約員工,Main contractor 任何職級既員工,
    任何工種Sub contractor 既工人,從事教授任何建造工程既教師、教授、正在受學既學生,
    靠建造業為家庭經濟主柱既家人,留落澳門、杜拜等等既工人/黑工.........)
    絕對相信只有得到所有從事建築界各打工仔支持參與,為香港建造業重新定位,
    讓政府及公眾明白、肯定建造業從業員對香港作出過既貢獻!!

    香港係有為數不少既市民靠建造業和相關行業糊口!!
    讓政府及公眾明白真正明白正視建造業工人既苦况!而唔係競選前家訪某家庭,應承會加快推出大型基建的空談!
    主席來港時家訪某家庭話希望正視蚊患,就立即有所行動!不要齊做清潔大隊長吧!!
    建造業從業員唔團結自愛,點會再受到社會各界尊重呢??!!

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