Tuesday, February 06, 2007

幫紫金礦業計計數

今日,孫柏文做番個資源分析員。根據路透社報道,喺前宗主國上市嘅Monterrico Metals,已接受咗2899紫金礦業「為首」財團嘅收購建議。Monterrico嘅主要資產,就係一塊喺秘魯嘅荒地。聽聞,該片荒地可以變成銅礦,所以今日就會幫紫金計一計數。

首先,紫金為首嘅財團已經宣布會保留Monterrico嘅上市地位,亦話街外股東至少會有30%嘅股權,剩餘70%自己會有31.5%。

非常保守咁假設上市嘅紫金礦業要總數承擔銅礦開發同公司收購費,紫金嘅盈利會點?以下為大家提供一個表,畀大家去分析。

營運成本嘅計算方法,係假設開採嘅銅,每磅要70美仙嘅成本。雖然喺03年Monterrico嘅招股書裏面,話估計營運成本係每磅50美仙,不過招股書裏面預計嘅銅礦生產量,係家嘅40%,所以我亦保守咁將營運成本推高。

兩大隱憂不可不知

其 實,呢單交易係對紫金非常着數,不過大家一定要記得呢單交易嘅兩大隱憂。第一個隱憂,就係唔知道會有乜嘢政府會喺未來上台,雖然喺舊年大選當中,支持自由 市場嘅候選人做咗總統,不過如果將來秘魯嘅選民選咗個大左派,咁都會爆發好多問題。輕微嘅可能抽重稅,嚴重嘅可能被國家充公資產。

第二個隱憂,就係唔知道投資者會否對紫金重新看待。一路以來,喺一眾資源股當中,金礦股特別吃香,市盈率亦特別高。

如果因為今次收購,紫金由一間金礦股,變成為一間銅礦股,就會好大鑊。原因係睇今時今日江西銅業嘅市盈率,如果紫金同佢睇齊,紫金要跌85%。究竟紫金買得好唔好?大家就要拭目以待。

紫金礦業呢個交易抵唔抵

Monterrico 每年產量 :22.4萬噸
將荒地變銅礦嘅投資 :14.44億美元,分7年攤分
收購Monterrico成本 :1億英鎊,分7年攤分
Monterrico開採 營運成本 :1543美元/噸
投資成本 :936美元/噸
收購攤分成本 :130美元/噸
收購Monterrico嘅總成本 :2609美元/噸
上周五銅價收報 : 5392美元/噸
Monterrico每年盈利 :6.23億美元

紫金每股可
盈利 :0.5港元
上周五收報 :5.12港元
紫金06年預測市盈率 :33.26倍
江西銅 06年預測市盈率 :4.81倍

3 comments:

  1. 如果熟識礦業,會知黃金會伴隨銅礦出土,而江西銅網頁自稱伴生金儲量第一,不過就無列出銅金產量比,如果有就可按數據睇高江記之PE叻,金手指知無?

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  2. I agree... Jiangxi copper should be called Jiangxi 江西金銀銅 due to its large gold and silver production.

    And hence 358 and 2899's PE should converge. But the question is which way.

    But I think that will take a name change...

    From Jiangxi COPPER to Jiangxi GOLD... The public PERCEPTION is that 358 is copper and 2899 is gold.

    My question is this 前打金仔, Both I know and you know that Jiangxi copper SHOULD have an higher PE. But would you want to rush in and buy and WAIT until the MARKET realises this?

    Or do you want to buy the moment before the market does?

    I do appreciate you know a lot about precious metals. But as for trading on the basis of psychology of the investors...

    You have to grasp the mental state of your fellow investors to win. 前打金仔知無? hahahhahahaha

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