Thursday, February 22, 2007

Desperate Analyst Attacks!

ha! seems like the personal insults keeps coming for me.

This time it is from "
分析員的告白"'s Albert...

But before I talk about Albert, I would like to say that when Cory said that he doesn't like my style of
譁眾取寵, it is fair. If reading other people's musing on finance and economics are like listening to the Berlin Orchestra, then yes, my column is like going to a rave party. I will be the first to admit that it is a style that will turn a lot of people off... And I think it is a tragedy for me to lose someone like Cory as a reader.

However... Albert...

Here is his comments on Cory's blog entry responding to me.

"Cory兄:

一個人的文筆很多時已反映其性格和修為。

從孫柏文於"某報紙"中刊登的文章,已不難看到一二,亦不難理解為何坊間有人對他作出誤解。


"和黃"及"匯控"的分析看到其"思考的連貫性"

"一注獨中"看到其風險管理意識、大局觀以及責任感

"白銀系列"不難看到其謙遜程度

其他不想多說........唯有贈他一句,水能載舟,亦能覆舟,名聲亦如兩刃刀,還請好自為之"

And this is my response to him.

" well... this entry was on my blog entry, so might as well join the discussion...

Albert, 一注獨贏 silver is to show determination, to catch the attention of the reader. If you think it fails to achieve risk diversification, I agree. But how insulting it is for my readers to think that they will really put all eggs in one basket?

I know you are an analyst, and I do wonder whether your comments stems from the fact that when you present your recommendations, it is to those with inferior intellect. I am no longer an analyst, I no longer deal with people who control other people's money, I no longer have to cover their asses if the trade (based on analyst recommendations) becomes a loss. My readers is, in one word, free. Free to invest, free to trade and free to think.

If you disagree with my macro economic analysis. Then all I can say is, time will tell.

As for Hutch and HSBC, we all know Hutch is held back by 3. And we all know if 3 is solved, hutch will explode upwards, every other business unit's prospects are priced in.

All justification to buy/sell 13, such as discount to BV, EBITDA forecast, EV calculations are BS. I am waiting for 3's subscriber numbers for Q1. Their x-series is a complete change in mentality for ANY phone operators, if that doesn't move subscriber numbers, then it really is time for Hutch to throw in the towel. But that is also why it is a good trade.

As for HSBC, it is not whether it was going to be US$9.5B - 11B vs consensus of US$8.8B...

This warning's significance is it challenges HSBC's aura of invincibility, of HSBC's omniscience. It has always been that any trouble they encounter, it is either because of exogenous factors OR it is an "one-off" mistake. You look at what Geoghegan or Green said after the profit warning... They are still up playing the "this is an one-off" angle.

Therefore, if there are any further bad news (say from UK consumer finance, or the trading desk) this stock is going to get whacked. Thats the story behind the warning.

Finally, 責任感... Have some faith in the typical man-on-the-street's intelligence, and let loose of the arrogance that seethes within you."

Finally, to lower myself to Albert's level..

The Conclusion? Albert is an inferior complex driven 小農中產, desperate for a false veneer of class and respectability. Sad.

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