Friday, February 16, 2007

滙豐搵人接火棒

上個禮拜四,滙豐出處女盈利警告,因為放咗好多債畀啲唔應該置業嘅花旗國 人,去買啲唔值嘅樓。現在,樓價下跌,按揭出現斷供潮,所以滙豐手上嘅按揭,就出現好多壞賬。


喺特區,銀行放債畀人去買樓,之後就會每個月等債仔還錢,因 為風險要自己承擔,所以風險控制會打醒十二分精神。而滙豐喺花旗國嘅按揭業務,有啲都係咁做。不過,要自己放債畀人,需要龐大嘅銷售網絡,就算請人都要一 段時間。滙豐為咗盡快可以放債畀人做按揭,得到按揭業務回報,就向啲花旗國「樓市叠碼仔」(按揭中介人)去買佢哋已經做咗嘅按揭番嚟。

不如執笠走佬

原 理就係咁樣,首先呢啲「叠碼仔」會放債畀人做按揭,跟住滙豐就會幫借咗錢嘅人還款畀啲「叠碼仔」。之後借咗錢嘅人每個月還款,就會畀滙豐而唔係畀原先放債 嘅「叠碼仔」。不過,問題就係呢班原先放債嘅「叠碼仔」,雖然知道自己最終唔會承擔風險,不過就係原先計算借錢人還款能力嘅單位,所以根本就冇誘因準確地 計算,人要借錢、佢就放

當然,滙豐唔係儍仔,買呢啲按揭番嚟嘅時候,就喺交易當中,包括隨時可以將按揭賣番畀啲「叠碼仔」嘅權利。大家可能會問:「咁如果呢啲按揭出事,滙 豐賣番畀佢哋咪得囉?」我反問大家:「如果你係啲叠碼仔,知道因為樓市爆煲所以新造按揭減少,不過有好多舊按揭火棒要接,你會點?」冇錯!現在花旗國按揭 中介公司已經出現倒閉潮,原因就係如果要接火棒,不如執笠走佬仲好。

最後,滙豐如果想賣走呢啲按揭,可能最後就係要賣畀啲散戶,孫柏文今日已經幫滙豐準備咗啲宣傳單張,大家睇完有冇想買嘅衝動?

6 comments:

  1. 依篇寫得好,但我相信匯豐三月盤數唔會太差, 因為12月既暖冬同零售業勁加長開放時間製造左大量one-off 職位, 依d 人好可能係subprime mortgage 既owner. 大節過後既淡市, 先係遊戲真正開始。

    ReplyDelete
  2. I agree...

    Energy windfall...

    US$60b extra for consumers in the US in Q4.

    To be honest, with IFRS, they can't even take a very conservative approach and add super extra amounts of provisions...

    The next 6 to 12 months will be very interesting.

    ReplyDelete
  3. and more interestingly, this winter is not a global warming, it is a el nino! next winter it shouldnt be that warm and next autumn typhoons shouldnt be not forming, but people would neglect these risks and spend without taking energy buffer.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I told both Wan Sze Zit and Lee Sai Man of your el Nino theory...

    While neither any of us are meteorologist, we all found wisdom and some entertainment in your theory.

    But Lee Sai Man wants to say that he also agree we shouldn't be getting November typhoons again.

    Shuen

    ReplyDelete
  5. Meteorologist, neither do I. I found a lot of web on this, and those experts (I cant verify) said the globe average temperate rose less than 1%c in the last 50 years. The effect is so large this year, so I suspect it is an El nino.

    Things matched, south China, East Pacific and East Atlantic warmer, West Pacific colder.

    Enjoy.

    http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/jan2007/2007-01-05-03.asp

    ReplyDelete
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