Thursday, August 09, 2007

債王測減息 甚麼又爆升

噚日,特區股市嘅恒指升628點,「路易發」意頭唔錯。

如果大家問孫柏文點解升咁 多,答案好簡單。上個禮拜五,花旗國標普五百跌39點(2.6%),跌穿200日平均線,特區禮拜一就被拖累,跌602點(2.7%)。

不過禮拜一,標普 五百升番34點,差唔多完全收復失地,特區禮拜二個市都冇反彈。要去到噚日禮拜三先至有反應。最弊就係呢排升升跌跌都係成交量少,噚日個市簡直好似我坐喺 桑拿房時嘅血壓一樣,乾升。相信大家同我一樣,都係等緊睇吓花旗國仲有冇嘢要爆。

等,無奈咁等。

白銀仲唔爆升?

我早幾日都一路講,關於花旗國債市出現嘅信貸斷層問題,《金手指》一欄,好少會direct quote。孫柏文推 銷概念畀大家嘅時候,好少會話:「呢個概念邊個邊個專家講嘅。」因為我覺得如過要話「邊個邊個講」,大家先服,個概念嘅說服力肯定好低。又或者掉轉嚟諗, 大家如果聽到一個由我講出嚟嘅概念,都覺得合情合理,個概念嘅說服力就肯定好高。不過,今日就要破例一次。

記得早排,高盛「投降」,由原先話「今年聯儲局 減息三次,減0.75%」,變成「今年唔減息」時,有債王Bond King之稱嘅PIMCO Bill Gross,一於好少理,企硬話聯儲局今年一定減息。當時佢話過,如果淨係睇數據,係應該唔減息。聯儲局唯一會減息嘅情況,就係如果有危機。當時佢企硬, 大家都應該知道佢對危機可以發生嘅機會率點睇。

噚日,Bill Gross又重申相信喺幾個月之內,聯儲局會開始減息。大家可以覺得冇信貸危機,可以同我對賭,不過要知道,都係同債王對賭。

最後,我想引述Jim Rogers,佢話:「成立聯儲局嘅原因,唔係去拯救華爾街。成立聯儲局嘅原因,係去捍衞貨幣購買力。希望佢哋真係會咁做。」伸延呢個邏輯,即係減息等如 放棄保護美元購買力,白銀仲唔爆升?

後記:立法會議員馬力去世,孫柏文今日喺A24論壇版嘅《蘋果批》會談及我對議席補選有乜希望。

2 comments:

  1. Agree with all points u mentioned in today's 蘋 果 批. There are many people like you and me who think the same way. However, it is exactly this kind of people (i.e. those who agree with your points) who won't throw themselves into politics...may be until one day a political party is formed in HK with your ideals.

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  2. If only someone...

    can heed the call and run...

    I am hoping desperately someone does it.

    ReplyDelete