Tuesday, August 07, 2007

投資銀行(Bear Stearns)將收 Margin Call?

噚日,孫柏文講過投資銀行點做「幫客出債券借錢」嘅生意。基本上,有五步。

1.投 資銀行(例如高盛、美林等)問商業銀行(例如滙豐、花旗等)借錢做本。

2.跟住再將錢借畀啲客。

3.啲客收到錢之後,就會出借據畀投資銀行。

4.投資銀行 跟住將借據改名為「債券」,賣畀啲投資者,從中收佣。

5.投資銀行收到投資者買「債券」嘅錢,就會還畀商業銀行。

噚日,我亦重溫過,97年百富點解執笠。 基本上,百富借錢畀客,不過個客嘅借據賣唔出,百富要自己揸住。跟住個客出事,百富手上嘅借據大幅貶值,借錢畀佢做本嘅商業銀行,見到佢資不抵債,就發 margin call,叫百富「補倉」。百富搵唔到現金,所以就執笠。

你唔call佢call

今時今日,國際級投資銀行例 如高盛、美林等,同當年百富一樣,借咗錢畀客,不過啲客嘅借據賣唔出。百富當年要自己揸2.6億美元嘅債券,今時今日嘅投資銀行就揸5000億美元嘅債 券。

當然,大家可能會話:「只要投資銀行被迫揸住嘅債券,冇好似百富嗰啲咁大幅貶值,應該冇事。」咁我就要反問,如果你係商業銀行嘅人,借咗錢畀啲投資銀 行,清楚明白投資銀行現在手持大量債券作資產。不過,債市冇成交,所以冇市價,你作為商業銀行嘅人,你會點做?

如無意外,就應該打電話畀投資銀行,叫佢哋 清楚列明有乜嘢債券喺手,跟住幫佢哋計一計數,如果資不抵債,就發margin call,叫佢哋還錢。

大家要記得,一間投資銀行會同好多間商業銀行借錢,如果你係第一間發margin call嘅商業銀行,將來可能會被抵制。不過,如果間投資銀行真係出事,你發margin call發得遲,投資銀行還唔到錢,咁就賠上十億八億。

60層帝景園又如何

6 月25日,喺我嗰篇題為「Bear Stearns大鑊」嘅《金手指》裏面,曾經將Bear Stearns比喻為一個97年炒幾百層舊山頂道帝景園嘅叔父。

大家可能記得,當時Bear Stearns有兩個佢哋管理嘅對冲基金出事,嗰兩個對冲基金,就好似個細姪走去炒層帝景園一樣。點知,個細姪唔掂,銀行要將佢嗰層帝景園銀主盤拍賣。最 弊拍賣時,啲人出價居然係細姪買入價嘅五折。

個叔父知道,如果因今次拍賣,所有帝景園單位價值要mark低50%,佢自己都唔掂,所以,叔父就出手硬食, 將自己手頭上帝景園嘅單位數量進一步推高。不過,就算好似當年揸60層帝景園嘅「豪宅大王」秦錦釗一樣,個市要跌,揸60層都係螳臂擋車。

去到呢度,孫柏文再問多次,如果你係借咗錢畀Bear Stearns嘅商業銀行職員,你會點做?

PS. Bear Stearns is talking to CITIC for a cash injection... Wonder whats going to happen next

5 comments:

  1. Hay! You are right in shorting HSBC.
    I think Bear Sterns may go into BK soon.

    But I feel sick of 13...

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  2. 那根本不是甚麼Margin Call!而是無產階級的怒號!

    central-is-hell.blogspot.com

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  3. I like your stubbornness although I may not agree with your points.

    I have doubt whether other comm. bankers would really call margin in this situation. Even when HK's property market collapsed several years ago, the bankers still didn't call margins from the customers as long as they could repay their debts on time. Is the debts/bonds market in US collapsing? I have no idea. However, I think the situation is still incomparable to the horrible market situation in HK. Of course, the investment banks will become the 'Big Big' crabs like most ordinary people in the bear market. They will have severe liquidity problems. The situation will really turn worse if the subprime mortgagors cannot pay their debts and the property market drop like HK's situation. Let's see.

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  4. 希望大陸政府不要再做傻仔接貴貨!!

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  5. Dear anon #1,

    I am sick of 13 too.

    They better not be stupid enough to have any of those subprime crap on their books.

    Dear anon #2,

    I think facts have proven that your doubt is proven incorrect.

    Dear niojew,

    I hope so too...

    ReplyDelete