Thursday, February 01, 2007

點解黃金最後在80年代下跌

上個禮拜六,我哋《蘋果日報》喺灣仔會展舉辦咗投資講座,孫柏文有幸作處女表演。當時,我呼籲大家參加「白銀戰隊」,一齊「一注獨贏買白銀」。理由係當不久嘅將來,市場對美元購買力失去信心時,白銀可令大家避開通脹嘅一劫。

當日我亦講過,最能代表美帝嘅美元,喺千禧年代面對嘅壓力同挑戰,同上世紀70年代非常相似。首先,70年代有嚴重經濟衰退,千禧就有「世紀樓市泡沫爆破」,結果令中央銀行瘋狂印發鈔票,令貨幣供應有如滔滔江水、綿綿不絕。

跟 住再有美帝軍力備受質疑,70年代中有美軍戰敗撤出越南,再有美帝喺中東嘅最大盟友,伊朗國王Shah of Iran流亡海外,換來一個對美恨之入骨嘅執政團體,最後仲有蘇聯以好似好輕鬆嘅姿態,「步入」阿富汗。千禧年代就有美軍不能擺平伊拉克,或者收復阿富汗 嘅叛軍。

大家可能會問:「一個國家嘅軍力,同佢保 護貨幣購買力嘅能力,有乜關係?」問得好!其實,一個國家嘅紙幣只不過是一張欠單,手上嘅紙幣最重要變換成有用嘅嘢。例如,港元同美元掛鈎,港紙就係一張 「隨時可以還美元」嘅欠單。以前,即係1971年之前,美元同黃金掛鈎,美元就係張「隨時可以攞黃金」嘅欠單。今時今日,美元已經完全自由浮動,大家繼續 持有美元,都只因覺得攞美元可以換到其他嘢。

就 算有一日,花旗國乜嘢都冇得畀你,大家最終都相信美帝會派遣軍隊去世界任何有資源嘅地方,美軍會有能力去搶啲嘢番嚟,去實現美元嘅購買力。呢個「軍隊搶嘢 番嚟去兌現紙幣」嘅「終極保證」,自古至今,不論係羅馬或蒙古帝國,都係紙幣令人揸得安樂嘅原因。其實,花旗國曾經喺03年嘗試過體現呢個「終極保證」。 當時花旗國揮軍攻擊伊拉克,如果可以成功大幅提高石油產量,令油價大跌,就變相令美元購買力大幅增強。所以,市場對一個國家嘅軍力睇得咁重。

全球人類集體懺悔

講 座當日,解釋完美元面對嘅壓力之後,有個觀眾問問題嘅環節,不過因為時間有限,好多問題都未能解答。所以今日想為大家答其中一條未能解答嘅問題。有觀眾 問:「點解去到80年代,黃金、白銀最終都從高處跌落嚟?」

原因其實很簡單,首先有列根總統上台,令全世界對美帝霸主地位重拾信心。不過最緊要係,當全球 經濟已經變成依賴濫發鈔票過日嘅癮君子之時,突然出現一個「貨幣神父」叫Paul Volcker嘅做聯儲局局長。佢堅毅不屈嘅福音戒毒手法,將新嘅貨幣供應停止,將濫發嘅鈔票攞走,手段包括將聯邦基金息率喺80至81年之間,三度提升 至2
0%。全球經濟面對20%息率,就有如全球人類進行集體懺悔。今日,為大家提供咗一幅走勢圖,論盡79至82年之間息率同金價嘅關係。

黃金、白銀係神 賦予世人嘅貨幣,凡人如果覺得自己有能力創造另類可以經得起歷史考驗嘅紙幣,就一定要間唔中進行80年代初嘅嗰種集體懺悔。不過所有驚黃金、白銀會跌嘅朋 友,我有兩個問題問你。第一,如果現任牛仔總統係Nixon,下任總統會係卡特或列根?第二,你估幾時先至再見到聯儲局喺兩年之內三度將息率提升至 20%?所以黃金、白銀仲有排升,大家要「一注獨贏買白銀」!

7 comments:

  1. 近期睇左呢個BLOG
    我先知道原黎貨幣 經濟係咁唔穩定

    之前講過日本既貨幣政策
    原黎已經係歷史遺留落黎既問題
    今日日本執政黨依然如是
    係咪要靠美國黎鞏固佢地既統治地位?
    日本唔將網上購物當作計算通脹既部份
    係咪改通脹計法既其中一部份?

    ReplyDelete
  2. 講貨幣都係張五常夠料過「白銀黨」。

    ReplyDelete
  3. HI Goldfinger

    1. Your chart of interest rate against gold price is great ... could you please also show us a chart to see if a similar trend between the share index e.g. Dow Jones and the interest rate exists?

    2. Of the commodity you recommend, why 白銀 and not "platinum"?

    ReplyDelete
  4. tin,

    佢話相片打印相紙要鍍一層白銀喎,但佢無提供打印紙工業耗銀數據,估佢斷估咋...

    ReplyDelete
  5. First... to 前打金仔...

    I am waiting for 2006 figures on silver usage. I do expect silver used for photography to shrink.

    But... I do expect that the shrinkage occurs all in consumer film (11% of silver photography use) while film paper (10% of silver photography use) will increase...

    While radiology (x-ray photo)use of photographic silver remains steady at around 45% of all photo silver usage.

    As for total % of silver used for photography, it is currently at around 20 - 30% of all silver use.

    Let me get more updated figures when they get released... but before then, yes... mostly extrapolation and 斷估 hahahahaha

    As for 張五常, of course he is better... But I am so glad that my discussion on monetary policies are not geared towards in getting an 'A' in HKCEE exams... but just to entertain hehe thats why he is a professor and i am a columnist at Apple.

    To tintin,

    1. I will get those graphs too... it is pretty interesting...

    2. Silver because the upside is so much bigger.

    ReplyDelete
  6. 白銀文:

    丈 夫 吸 煙 妻 患 冠 心 病 風 險 高
    禁 煙 新 例 之 下   情 況 或 趨 嚴 重
    http://appledaily.atnext.com/template/apple/art_main.cfm?iss_id=20070207&sec_id=4104&subsec_id=3626368&art_id=6792764

    文章中的風險數据,引用507個訪問。對比數以十萬計的煙民,有否誤導?
    由於最近發現很多纇似的研究報告,希望可以指出何謂“統計“。

    白銀黨羽

    西門拜上

    ReplyDelete
  7. to 西門,

    The sample size is not unreasonable... But it could be much bigger, and it has to be much bigger to have any significant medical research value.

    However, the basic thesis is not beyond the realm of acceptable science. When you ban smokers from smoking outdoors, they will then smoke where they can (which is indoors) and their spouse will be negatively impacted.

    Thats the problem. I fear that the decrease in deaths from banning public smoking (such as restaurants workers, etc) will not outweigh the deaths from increased indoor smoking (such as the spouses)...

    Nevertheless, there are serious unintentional consequences with this law.

    Shuen

    ReplyDelete