Thursday, February 22, 2007

豬年最應沽的藍籌股

孫柏文心裏面有一隻又愛又恨嘅藍籌股。首先,我愛呢隻股票嘅原因,係公司 管理層對自己嘅行業瞭如指掌,亦一向以來明白、繼而證實世界大趨勢必定會利好該行業。仲要管理層每一次定下來嘅多年計劃,一定成功落實,兼且為公司帶來一 開始已經預測會有嘅非常可觀盈利增長。可以話牙齒當金使,有世界級競爭力香港人之典範。

公司最令我如癡如醉嘅原因,就係多年來派息比率高達80%,公司賺1蚊、股息派8毫,公司有錢賺、股東笑呵呵。

大家聽到我咁樣形容呢間公司,都應該同我一樣有少少心動。不過,我恨呢隻股票嘅原因,就係因為以上同大家講過嘅公司優勢,全世界都知,甚至可以話有好多投資者比我更相信該公司戰無不勝嘅神話,所以令到隻股好貴。

呢隻藍籌股就係利豐(494)。

有 心機選擇外判商,可以令各種貨品每一步嘅工序成本下降,亦同時將品質提高。有效運用供應鏈,就會令總存貨數量減少,亦同時減少供不應求、熱賣貨品斷市嘅情 況出現。控制到登峯造極嘅供應鏈,甚至可以令產品盡快變種去迎合不停改變嘅消費者口味,公司就可以減低「估估吓、估錯咗」口味帶來嘅損失。呢啲利豐全部做 得到。因為如此,所以今時今日投資者肯出45蚊去買利豐每1蚊嘅利潤,即係等於市盈率高達45倍,做個比較,滙豐(005)嘅市盈率都係得13倍。喺花旗 國,出晒名貴嘅Google,市盈率都係得49倍。當然,利豐近年真係可以交出每年20%嘅盈利增長,所以先至有咁多fan屎。

不 過,孫柏文非常擔心利豐股價前景,因為利豐一向以 來都被認為係一隻反映花旗國消費者信心嘅股票,而花旗國正面對樓市爆煲將會減低消費意慾嘅現實。雖然,公司盈利不但不會減少,甚至可能繼續有增長,不過因 為利豐市盈率咁高,市場一定要見到20%嘅盈利增長,增長只要一放慢,投資者可以接受嘅市盈率就可以暴跌。到時每股盈利上升10%,不過市盈率跌一半,公 司股價就可以跌45%。數就係咁計,所以除非利豐真係可以戰無不勝,豬年最應沽嘅藍籌股就係佢!

5 comments:

  1. 如果真係可以跌一半都幾好, 仲未買夠貨.
    同埋06年的PE只係3x...唔係4x..

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  2. using 06 forecast profit, PE yes... 3X

    I was using 05 profits. Was uncomfortable with 06 forecast...

    Anyhow, I was also using google's 05 profit for comparison. But 494 is a very good company. If it drops by half, I would be a buyer too! = )

    Shuen

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  3. in fact, seldoms buy stock with PE > 20 ! Because, any drop in expected growth will have very high pressure on stock price

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  4. People always say that investors of technology stock is too senstive to earnings down grades and missed earnings growth.

    I say they are wrong. Tech companies are bets on rapid and steady growth. When a company misses and demonstrates a slower grwoth rate, all the discounted future profit flow will grossly impact current share prices.

    It is not that the market "hates" a company when it misses. It just shrinks its PE multiples.

    You don't see a mining or oil company share price get whacked like that if it misses. Because the PE is so low as to account for no growth.

    Just a thought...

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  5. The question I have for the 494 phenomenon. Was it a true success story on Supply Chain Management or was it success story on M&A? Total of HK$8.5billion spent (00'-07') not including the Dodwell deal in 95'/06' and Swire deal in 98'/99' which is closer to HK$10billion spent in 10years. Do you see there are still that many companies out there for 494 to buy to sustain such greatness?!

    ReplyDelete